The West is on fire, literally. With the unprecedented heat wave roasting the region, experts are warning that this year's wildfire season could be particularly perilous. The relentless heat has caused mountain snowpack to virtually vanish, setting the stage for a potentially dangerous fire season. This is a cause for concern, as the early snowmelt has increased the risk of an earlier and more severe wildfire season. Even high-altitude forests are drying out well before they usually do, making them more vulnerable to extreme fire-weather conditions during the warm season. A new study published in the journal Environmental Research Letters showed that the trend toward earlier snowmelt in the West, expected to worsen due to human-caused climate change, has led to larger amounts of acreage burned and more severe wildfires. Such fires can usher in ecosystem changes that last long after a particular blaze is extinguished. The situation is dire, with no precedent for such an early melt in at least forty years. The rapid snow melt started from a historically low snowpack, and the fact that we're melting out now, before we even have reached what historically has been the peak snow amount on the ground, tells you everything you need to know about the wildfire risks. The Colorado River Basin, which has been mired in drought for years, is particularly vulnerable to the impacts of this early snowmelt. The chances for more severe wildfires in the coming months are high, compared to what would have occurred in a wetter, cooler year. Extreme early snowmelt lengthens the fire season by getting it going earlier in the year, fast-forwarding us towards a fire season. However, there is a significant caveat: the uncertain weather conditions between now and the end of the warm season. While the potential for a particularly dangerous fire season exists, it is not guaranteed, as the weather during the spring and summer months plays a large role in triggering blazes and sustaining them. Transient weather patterns can significantly raise or lower short-term fire risks, and there is still room for a weather pattern shift that could bring cooler conditions and possibly even a wetter regime to the West. If this happens, it might lessen some of the heightened wildfire risks, although it would not completely ameliorate them. If the warm pattern that has persisted from the winter into the spring continues, the odds of a potentially extreme wildfire season tick up considerably. This is a critical moment for the West, and it's time to take action to mitigate the risks and protect our communities and ecosystems.
